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"Bookies work on the probabilities: it's just maths. They set their 'odds' based on the likeliness of making a profit. Setting odds JUST to attract punters is a DISASTER if the probability of that 'horse' winning (or placing) means that the 'payouts' exceeds monies coming in plus their 'profit'. The basis of the maths is simple."
Oh the maths is very simple alright,and if you dont attract punters you ain't going to make any money.Bookies don't just work on probabilties though do they?
They work on knowing a damn sight more than Joe Soap does on whatever they're offering odds on. The only bets they do offer that are "pure" probability bets are lottery bets and they dont offer anywhere near the odds for your bet, again they count of Joe Soap thinking "um 625 for 3 numbers on the Irish,that's great" when it's actually a very poor value bet for the punter.
In this case the bookies knew as soon as the Mclaren turned a couple of laps this year that neither driver had a hope in hell of winning the championship in that car and they also knew the chances of Alonso getting released by Mclaren Honda to elbow his way in to a winning car this year was about zilch.
For me 300-1 wasn't enough, it was taking the p***,it was a price to atract people who rate Alonso and thought "humm only 20-25 runners for the year and they're offering 300-1 on one of the best of them...I'll have some of that". You were one of them of that thought they sounded like good odds.
Of course Alonso's chance of winning the championship was way lower than that. I named my price way back, even for a tenner bet I'd have wanted 30,000-1 before the season started and now I'd want 300,000-1. My reasoning being I don't think Honda have a hope in hell of producing a championship winning engine this year. Infact, their efforts so far have been woeful and considering they're supposed to be this engineering colossus who have had an extra year to design and refine their concept they've actually been an utter embarrassment.
now if it was 300-1 for a race win this year then that would have been more like it, after all anything can happen in a single race, Maldanado won one once.
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