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Re:straws get thinner by the moment
Posted by 'JohnClucas' on 17 Apr 2009 @ 19:22

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JohnClucasJoined: August 2001
Total Posts: 1
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David - you clearly do not understand statistics. And Tangler, you must realise you are clutching at ever more implausible straws.

IF 50% of drivers are speeding at any one time and only 13% of accidents involve speeding. There is absolutely no room for debate - speeding drivers have less accidents than non-speeding ones.

In fact only 5% of ACCIDENTS are said by the DFT to involve speeding so the case is even more clearcut. You may argue WHY that is the case, (or dispute the figures) but if you believe the figures are ANYWHERE NEAR correct there is no argument that it is the case.

I'll do the logic on red cars (again). If 13% of cars on the road at any one time are red you would expect 13% of accidents to involve red cars. If more than 13% of accidents involve red cars you have to conclude that if you have a red car you are (statistically) more likely to have an accident - and if the difference was significant insurance premiums would reflect it.

But if it were the case that red cars had more (or less) than there fair share of accidents you might debate whether it was
a) an issue of visibility
b) that red cars were older/newer than other cars which affected there accident rate
c) the psychology of the drivers buying red cars

etc etc

But what you cannot (sensibly) debate is WHETHER they are more likely to be involved in accident - only WHY.

Absolutely the same argument applies to speeders. If you don't understand that you simply don't understand statistics.

You seem to accept the figures (and it's difficult not to) but not the inevitable conclusion - just because it doesn't square with your beliefs.

You don't both belong to the flat earth society do you?

Message Thread:

Speed limits by 'MarkW' (12 Apr 2009 @ 3:19)

Re: Speed limits by 'Latestarter' (12 Apr 2009 @ 6:53)

Re: Speed limits by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (12 Apr 2009 @ 9:18)

Re: Speed limits by 'mobilechicane' (12 Apr 2009 @ 10:33)

Re: Speed limits by 'Tmoon' (12 Apr 2009 @ 11:44)

Re: Speed limits by 'DBaldwin' (12 Apr 2009 @ 12:16)

Re: Speed limits by 'michaelg36' (12 Apr 2009 @ 12:36)

Re: Speed limits by 'harvinsurrey' (12 Apr 2009 @ 17:00)

Re: Speed limits by 'harvinsurrey' (12 Apr 2009 @ 17:02)

Re: Speed limits by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (12 Apr 2009 @ 20:41)

Re: Speed limits by 'kudos' (12 Apr 2009 @ 22:19)

Re: Speed limits by 'HC64' (13 Apr 2009 @ 0:17)

Re: Speed limits by 'ChrisAdams' (13 Apr 2009 @ 2:00)

Re: Speed limits by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (13 Apr 2009 @ 8:07)

Re: Speed limits by 'JohnClucas' (13 Apr 2009 @ 9:18)

Re: Speed limits by 'davidmc' (13 Apr 2009 @ 11:37)

Re: I don't want to re-run the argument again by 'JohnClucas' (13 Apr 2009 @ 12:46)

Re: Speed limits by 'harvinsurrey' (13 Apr 2009 @ 9:26)

Re: Speed limits by 'HC64' (13 Apr 2009 @ 9:42)

Re: Speed limits by 'DBaldwin' (13 Apr 2009 @ 10:07)

Re: Speed limits by 'HC64' (13 Apr 2009 @ 11:03)

Re: Speed limits by 'davidmc' (13 Apr 2009 @ 11:49)

Re: Speed limits by 'ChrisAdams' (13 Apr 2009 @ 13:32)

Re: Speed limits by 'JohnClucas' (14 Apr 2009 @ 10:55)

Re: Speed limits by 'davidmc' (14 Apr 2009 @ 11:33)

Re: Sorry david but it certainly does by 'JohnClucas' (14 Apr 2009 @ 16:25)

Re: Speed limits and cameras by 'JohnClucas' (14 Apr 2009 @ 16:42)

Re: Speed limits and cameras by 'TanglerTKM' (14 Apr 2009 @ 17:29)

Re: No Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (14 Apr 2009 @ 17:34)

can you post the link? by 'TanglerTKM' (14 Apr 2009 @ 17:38)

Re: Give me strength by 'JohnClucas' (14 Apr 2009 @ 19:31)

You don't have the figures do you John... by 'TanglerTKM' (14 Apr 2009 @ 23:58)

Re: Eyesight problem, brain fade or just idle? by 'JohnClucas' (15 Apr 2009 @ 20:54)

Re: Eyesight problem, brain fade or just idle? by 'Avago' (15 Apr 2009 @ 22:36)

Re: Eyesight problem, brain fade or just idle? by 'TanglerTKM' (16 Apr 2009 @ 1:45)

Re: Avago Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (16 Apr 2009 @ 8:04)

Re: John by 'davidmc' (16 Apr 2009 @ 9:41)

..trying to make it simple. by 'TanglerTKM' (16 Apr 2009 @ 11:37)

Re: David by 'JohnClucas' (16 Apr 2009 @ 14:43)

Re: Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (16 Apr 2009 @ 14:54)

Re: John by 'davidmc' (16 Apr 2009 @ 20:43)

Re: sorry David by 'JohnClucas' (16 Apr 2009 @ 22:02)

John, stop making conclusions you can't make by 'TanglerTKM' (16 Apr 2009 @ 22:44)

Re: Eyesight problem, brain fade or just idle? by 'davidmc' (17 Apr 2009 @ 0:27)

Re:straws get thinner by the moment by 'JohnClucas' << You are here!

Re: Eyesight problem, brain fade or just idle? by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (17 Apr 2009 @ 23:38)

Dan & John by 'TanglerTKM' (18 Apr 2009 @ 10:06)

Re: convenient misinterpretation of the figures by 'JohnClucas' (18 Apr 2009 @ 20:44)

Re: Speed limits by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (13 Apr 2009 @ 22:14)

Re: Speed limits by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (13 Apr 2009 @ 22:20)

Re: Speed limits by 'davidmc' (14 Apr 2009 @ 8:32)

Re: Speed limits by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (14 Apr 2009 @ 9:00)

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