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Re: Try logic tangler
Posted by 'JohnClucas' on 03 Apr 2009 @ 17:32

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JohnClucasJoined: August 2001
Total Posts: 1
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If (say) 15% of drivers are speeding at any one instant then the drivers who DO speed are LESS likely to have a fatal accident and MUCH less likely to have an accident at all.

Likewise IF 10% of drivers at any given instant were over the legal limit and only 8% were involved in fatal accidents you would HAVE to conclude that drink drivers were safer than sober ones. BUT, in fact the number of drivers over the legal limit at any one instant is MUCH less than 8% so you have to conclude that drunken drivers are less (much less) safe than sober ones.

The logic is exactly the same - but the figures are different and the conclusion is therefore inevitably different.

The fact there are more speeding motorists than drunks is a TOTAL irrelevance - it's the comparison between the number driving illegally and the number who have accidents that is the ONLY matter of consequence in judging how safe they are.

Is that really such a complicated thing to understand? It's not rocket science, its the most basic of statistics.

Message Thread:

Re: Continued from SAFE SPEED thread. by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (01 Apr 2009 @ 9:04)

Re: Continued from SAFE SPEED thread. by 'davidmc' (01 Apr 2009 @ 10:14)

David by 'itpro' (01 Apr 2009 @ 11:37)

Re: David by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (01 Apr 2009 @ 12:56)

Re: Continued from SAFE SPEED thread. by 'itpro' (01 Apr 2009 @ 11:32)

Re: Continued from SAFE SPEED thread. by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (01 Apr 2009 @ 13:06)

This stuff is NOT complex! by 'itpro' (01 Apr 2009 @ 15:54)

Re: Still avoiding the simple question itpro/tangl by 'JohnClucas' (01 Apr 2009 @ 17:11)

Re: Still avoiding the simple question itpro/tangl by 'PaulMRotax' (01 Apr 2009 @ 17:31)

Paul by 'itpro' (01 Apr 2009 @ 19:52)

Re: Paul by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 8:19)

Re: Paul by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 10:15)

Re: Paul by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 10:22)

Re: Paul by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:23)

Re: Paul by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 12:33)

Re: Still avoiding the simple question itpro/tangl by 'JohnClucas' (01 Apr 2009 @ 17:41)

-John: still avoid the simple question itpro/tangl by 'TanglerTKM' (01 Apr 2009 @ 17:47)

Re: -John: still avoid the simple question itpro/t by 'JohnClucas' (01 Apr 2009 @ 19:35)

Re: -John: still avoid the simple question itpro/t by 'itpro' (01 Apr 2009 @ 19:54)

Re: -John: still avoid the simple question itpro/t by 'JohnClucas' (01 Apr 2009 @ 19:59)

Re: -John: still avoid the simple question itpro/t by 'TanglerTKM' (01 Apr 2009 @ 22:45)

Re: That just sums it up Tangler!!!! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 7:56)

Re: That just sums it up Tangler!!!! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 8:24)

Dan....... by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:17)

Re: Dan....... by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:36)

Re: Dan....... by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 15:07)

Try thinking about it Dan by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 18:58)

Re: ARE YOU thinking about it Tangler? by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:24)

Re: ARE YOU thinking about it Tangler? by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:26)

Re: ARE YOU thinking about it Tangler? by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:39)

Re: ARE YOU thinking about it Tangler? by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:51)

Re: ARE YOU thinking about it Tangler? by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:07)

*sigh* by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:08)

Re: Excuse me Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:26)

Re: Excuse me Tangler by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:16)

Re: Typical ipro - no interest in facts or context by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 22:29)

Re: Dan....... by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:38)

Re: Dan....... by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 12:38)

Re: Dan....... by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 15:09)

Re: Dan....... by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:53)

Re: Dan....... by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:09)

Re: Dan....... by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 23:35)

I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.... by 'itpro' (01 Apr 2009 @ 19:50)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'JohnClucas' (01 Apr 2009 @ 20:06)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (01 Apr 2009 @ 20:35)

where are we with this? by 'TanglerTKM' (01 Apr 2009 @ 23:08)

Re: where are we with this? by 'Booney' (01 Apr 2009 @ 23:29)

Re: where are we with this? by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 7:40)

Ok...getting somewhere! Booney & Dan by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:17)

Re: Now that is real progress Tangler!!!! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:47)

Re: Now that is real progress Tangler!!!! by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:13)

Re: Now that is real progress Tangler!!!! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:36)

Re: Now that is real progress Tangler!!!! by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:57)

Re: Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 8:15)

Re: Tangler by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:26)

John by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 18:44)

Re: Tangler - well actually YES someone did die by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:41)

Re: Tangler - well actually YES someone did die by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:21)

For goodness sake Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 22:33)

John by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 23:38)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:10)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:50)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 15:08)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:12)

Re: I'll answer YOUR question the first time YOU.. by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:30)

Re: Sorry I should have said.. by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:15)

Re: Sorry I should have said.. by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:53)

Re: So answer the question by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:59)

Re: So answer the question by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:13)

Gentlemen....I suggest you look here...... by 'QuickOldTimer' (02 Apr 2009 @ 21:08)

Re: Gentlemen....I suggest you look here...... by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 21:37)

Re: Do be scientific by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 21:59)

Re: Do be scientific...get it right... by 'QuickOldTimer' (02 Apr 2009 @ 22:04)

Re: Do be scientific...get it right... by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 22:15)

john.....ahem by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 23:47)

Re: er Tangler no by 'JohnClucas' (03 Apr 2009 @ 12:08)

John....you're arguing against yourself now! by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 12:27)

Re: no I'm not!!! by 'JohnClucas' (03 Apr 2009 @ 12:51)

Re: no I'm not!!! by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 16:00)

Re: Try logic tangler by 'JohnClucas' << You are here!

and i thought it was blue..... by 'Avago' (03 Apr 2009 @ 12:43)

Re: This stuff is NOT complex! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (01 Apr 2009 @ 20:49)

Re: This stuff is NOT complex! by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 11:00)

Re: This stuff is NOT complex! by 'PaulMRotax' (02 Apr 2009 @ 12:39)

I really can't understand..... by 'vic' (02 Apr 2009 @ 13:01)

Re: Unfortunately vic by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 17:01)

John will do his BEST to avoid this BUT..... by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:28)

Re: No he won't, put up or shut up by 'JohnClucas' (02 Apr 2009 @ 19:47)

Re: No he won't, put up or shut up by 'itpro' (02 Apr 2009 @ 20:10)

One for the mix by 'Booney' (02 Apr 2009 @ 23:24)

Re: One for the mix by 'TanglerTKM' (02 Apr 2009 @ 23:55)

Re: One for the mix by 'PaulMRotax' (03 Apr 2009 @ 7:59)

Re: One for the mix by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 8:59)

Re: One for the mix by 'PaulMRotax' (03 Apr 2009 @ 11:17)

Re: One for the mix by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 16:10)

Re: One for the mix by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:00)

Accidents are NOT accidents because.... by 'Avago' (03 Apr 2009 @ 12:56)

Re: Accidents are NOT accidents because.... by 'Booney' (03 Apr 2009 @ 17:33)

Re: Accidents are NOT accidents because.... by 'PaulMRotax' (04 Apr 2009 @ 14:02)

Re: Unfortunately vic.... by 'vic' (03 Apr 2009 @ 12:51)

Re: Unfortunately vic.... by 'JohnClucas' (03 Apr 2009 @ 14:36)

Re: Unfortunately vic.... by 'vic' (03 Apr 2009 @ 19:37)

Re: Unfortunately vic.... by 'JohnClucas' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:12)

Re: Telepathy or what! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:26)

Re: Unfortunately vic.... by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:21)

Dan & John by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:56)

Re: And the conclusion... by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 21:29)

The reason speed is made an issue by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 21:58)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:10)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:20)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:26)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:44)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:22)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:47)

Re: The reason speed is made an issue by 'JohnClucas' (04 Apr 2009 @ 19:38)

Re: Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (03 Apr 2009 @ 21:37)

Re: Tangler by 'TanglerTKM' (03 Apr 2009 @ 22:05)

Re: Tangler by 'JohnClucas' (04 Apr 2009 @ 12:42)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'QuickOldTimer' (04 Apr 2009 @ 14:19)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (05 Apr 2009 @ 0:01)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'TanglerTKM' (05 Apr 2009 @ 8:57)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (05 Apr 2009 @ 13:21)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'QuickOldTimer' (05 Apr 2009 @ 17:47)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'TanglerTKM' (05 Apr 2009 @ 18:38)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (05 Apr 2009 @ 20:05)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'JohnClucas' (05 Apr 2009 @ 21:28)

Re:Enforce the things that matter by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (06 Apr 2009 @ 7:24)

Re: and what about consistency in punishment by 'JohnClucas' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:47)

Re: This stuff is NOT complex! by 'DanTheK1RaceGearMan' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:37)

Re: This stuff is NOT complex! by 'DevonHawker' (03 Apr 2009 @ 20:48)

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