" So lets say that 10 years ago we had a population of 50 million and out of them 1 in 10,000 people are MSA registered karters "
However, if one does the Economics 101 analysis, the first thing one looks for are substitutes.
Back in the early 90's if one got caught by the karting bug, it was almost necessary to join the MSA in order to satisfy one's need for karting speed. The earlier one looks, the more people were registered with the MSA.
Since then there are lots of alternatives, not least the growth in non-MSA karting. There were lots of reasons. I can remember meetings at Dunkeswell with over 200 drivers, in the days when practice was free. Now that is comparatively rare and the days of 60 karts in one club grid, of C and D finals are long gone.
The Rotax grid was almost entirely composed of "damaged my back" drivers and many drivers were local drivers.
TKMs, Greens/ C , Blues / 89s, Rotax, Pro-kart, and three classes of Senior Gearbox, there were as many classes being driven then as there are now.
However, the number of licences has fallen from 7000 to 5000 a year, not because the drivers are confused by which class to race, but simply because there are so many other calls on family money, family entertainment...and without any of the palaver of ARKS test, licence or even the cost of one's own gear you can get the same number of laps with a recognisably 'racing engine' at your local track. Buckmore for example runs its own BT82's and seems to have 60 and 80 on the grid (two grids in one night) regularly, let alone the RX390's.
If I was to pin the blame on a single cause, then one would blame the ARKS test with the implied delay before one is even allowed to be a novice. I have seen more interested drivers back out of getting a kart when faced with that forced 'cooling off' period than confusion about class ever caused, mainly because they get time to think about what else they would spend the money on and because a surprising number of people really get the jitters about 'the exam'.
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