"how can they KNOW he will be competitive ?" Because no team in the right mind would take him on unless he was - least of all the constructors champions!!! That does not mean they KNOW...it simply means they "assume" he will be competitive.
"he has not driven a F1 car recently.." How do you know that? .. "competitively" ... well he would not have been testing in the Ferrari, and who would he be testing against in a Brawn ? Rosberg ? ... Button & Barricello have long left the garage !
"next years car doesnt exist so they dont know if it will be competitive either.." Fair comment, but who better to give Brawn the benefit of his extensive (technical) experience? Yes , but again this is not currrent data.
"Their competitors cars dont exist either to draw any comparisons .. ?" Exactly. So it's currently a level playing field (or was?). Who would be better than MS? ..But what if McLaren , Ferrari or Red Bull pull another advantage like Brawn did this year ?? ( Statistically the probability of Brawn doing it 2 years consecutively is low) ....and Mercedes have stated their intention to stick to a low budget ...Schumacher has a less than favourable chance of having a competitive car !
I will state now that Schumacher is going to have a disappointing year ahead of him !! And you can bank that comment for review next December.
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